2025 Mid-Year Review - Event Summary
/Navigating Consumer Sentiment, Volatility, and Financial Markets Outlook
At the midpoint of 2025, investors face a familiar yet evolving landscape—one where political headlines, short-term volatility, and emotional sentiment often blur the view of long-term fundamentals. In a recent event hosted by Gilbert & Cook, Chief Investment Strategist Chris Cook provided insight and context to help investors cut through the noise and stay focused on the drivers that truly matter.
Consumer Sentiment: Low Readings, Positive Outcomes
Chris opened with a long-term perspective on consumer sentiment, drawing on a University of Michigan chart dating back to the early 1970s. With current sentiment hovering around 52.5—near historical lows—he reminded the audience that this isn't uncharted territory. Similar sentiment troughs occurred during Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, the inflation crisis of 1980, the tech bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID shock.
Despite the pessimism in those moments, the subsequent 12-month market returns often turned positive. "Investor emotion doesn’t always track market fundamentals," Chris emphasized. "Low sentiment has historically created opportunities and actually mitigated risks."
The Political Noise vs. Market Reality
From tariffs and immigration to fiscal and monetary policy changes, today’s headlines often amplify market anxiety. Chris noted that while such headlines can trigger short-term volatility, they rarely dictate long-term market direction. Investors who react emotionally may miss out on rebounds rooted in earnings growth and broader economic resilience.
Bear Markets: Lessons in Perspective
To put current volatility in context, Chris compared today’s market climate with bear markets of the past—such as 1973–74, the dot-com bubble, and the 2008 recession—all of which played out over extended periods. More recent disruptions, such as the COVID crash and the 2022 inflation-driven downturn, were sharp but brief.
The takeaway? Resist the temptation to exit quality investments due to short-term market movements. "The market rewards patience, not panic," Chris advised.
Corporate Earnings Remain the Core Driver
While headlines come and go, corporate earnings remain the lifeblood of market performance. Chris shared encouraging projections: U.S. companies are expected to deliver +9% earnings growth in 2025 and +14% in 2026. These robust estimates suggest continued strength in business fundamentals—critical fuel for long-term stock market gains.
U.S. Debt: Stimulus Today, Challenges Tomorrow
Turning to the broader economy, Chris addressed the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, which stands at roughly 100%. He explained that while increased government borrowing can stimulate economic activity in the short term, it is not a sustainable long-term strategy. The fiscal injections we see today support consumer spending and business momentum, but rising debt remains a structural concern that demands vigilance over time.
A Global Shift? International Equities and Currency Impact
A notable shift in performance has emerged in global markets. During the first half of 2025, European equities outpaced U.S. stocks in U.S. dollar terms. For example, Germany’s market delivered a 19.2% local currency return—but when converted to dollars, the gain swelled to 35.2% thanks to a weaker U.S. dollar versus the Euro.
This may signal the start of a more sustained leadership rotation from U.S. equities to global markets. "Investors need to think globally," Chris noted, "and currency dynamics are playing a larger role in total returns."
Spotlight on the U.S. Middle Market
Lastly, Chris highlighted an often-overlooked area of opportunity: U.S. middle-market companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $100 million. Taken collectively, these businesses represent what would be the world’s third-largest economy—behind only the U.S. and China.
While institutional investors like insurance companies have long targeted this space, Gilbert & Cook is also providing clients access through partnerships with managers specializing in private equity and middle-market lending. “It’s an area of the market that offers attractive risk-adjusted returns and diversification,” Chris explained.
Conclusion: Staying Focused Amid Uncertainty
While the headlines may stir uncertainty, the fundamentals tell a more stable story—one of earnings growth, evolving global leadership, and opportunity in overlooked segments of the market. For investors, the challenge isn’t just navigating the noise, but understanding where clarity and conviction lie.
At Gilbert & Cook, we remain committed to helping others look beyond the daily headlines and stay aligned with strategies designed to weather volatility and pursue long-term abundance.